Future Land Use/Land Cover Change Has Nontrivial and Potentially Dominant Impact on Global Gross Primary Productivity
نویسندگان
چکیده
Anthropogenic land use/land cover (LULC) change alters terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the largest land-atmosphere carbon exchanges. Identifying impacts of LULC changes on future GPP has been challenging due to scarcity standardized for ecosystem models. Here, we present eight scenario-based projections global spatially explicit at 1-km resolution over period 2015–2100 with a Future Land Use Simulation model—consistent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Twenty computational experiments different patterns, climate forcing, CO2 concentrations were conducted quantify their contributions dynamics. Results show that would decline in 21st century most scenarios urbanization, agricultural expansion, deforestation. Moreover, contribution dynamics ranges from 3.43% 10.78% when fertilization effect (CFE) is not modeled during 2000–2100 (7%–9% area dominated by change). However, this value may range 10.92% 16.16% 2000–2050 1.41%–14.57% 2050–2100. The even reached 56.08% 2050–2100 Southeast Asia Despite relatively important role dynamics, it becomes trivial globally incorporating CFE into model (i.e., accounts 1.24%–2.51% 2000–2100). Our findings emphasize strategic enhancing highlight quantitatively nontrivial regional scale.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2328-4277']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002628